Findabet's The Everest Form Guide

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We break down and Analyse the form of every runner for The Everest – the world’s richest horse race on turf.

 

1. Chautauqua (5)

 

Odds - $6.5

Carrying - 58.5kg

 

Prize Money: $8.4m

Last 10: 67s1323s74

 

7yo gelding

Jockey: Brenadan Avdulla

 

Trainer: W & J Hawkes

 

Big Wins: 3-time winner of the Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes, Group 1 HK Chairmans Sprint Prize, Group 1 Lighting Stake, Group 1 Manikato Stakes.

Summary: Chautauqua possesses what’s possibly the greatest ability to accelerate in world racing. You won’t find Chautauqua anywhere but running last in the early stages of the race, and then attempting to time the right burst of acceleration to run past everyone. This blinding ‘turn of foot’ lead many to label Chautauqua ‘the best sprinter in the world’. Though such an ability to accelerate relies on a high upfront speed in-order for Chautauqua to do real damage in the home straight. His Reliance on race speed and positioning means Chautauqua’s not guaranteed to deliver the goods.

Findabet Verdict: We would absolutely love to see the ‘gray flash’ run around the pack and take out a famous inaugural Everest; though don’t think we will be putting money on him on this occasion.

 

2. Vega Magic (10)

 

Odds - $5

Carrying - 58.5kg

 

Prize Money: $2.0m

Last 10: 11s1s1719s

 

5yo gelding

Jockey: Craig Williams

 

Trainer: D&B Hayes & T Dabering

 

Big Wins: Group 1 Memsie Stakes, Group 1 Goodwood Handicap

Summary: Vega Magic has won his last four starts and is deservedly one of the favourites here. Has drawn a bit of an awkward barrier so will need to do some work early. Plenty of the experts, including Daniel O’sullivan, have Vega Star rated as the one to beat.

Findabet Verdict: Vega Magic is our pick to win and is offering some decent odds at $5.

 

3. Redzel (4)

 

Odds - $8

Carrying - 58.5kg

 

Prize Money: $1.4m

Last 10: 11s1122s18

 

5yo gelding

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

 

Trainer: P&P Snowden

 

Big Wins: Group 1 Doomben 10,000, Group 2 The Shorts

Summary: Redzel has won both key lead up races to the Everest, placing him as arguably the form runner for the race. The barrier draw was friendly to Redzel.

Findabet Verdict: This is a much tougher race than Redzel has won before, though he is certainly one to watch.

 

4. Redkirk Warrior (3)

 

Odds - $9.5

Carrying - 58.5kg

 

Prize Money: $1.4m

Last 10: 1s501s12s5

 

6yo gelding

Jockey: Regan Bayliss

 

Trainer: W & J Hawkes

 

Big Wins: Group 1 Newmarket Handicap, Group 2 Bobbie Lewis Quality

Summary: Had a big win in Autumn in the Newmarket before failing in a couple of races in the wet. Needs a dry Randwick track, which he should get, though is up against some really tough opposition.

Findabet Verdict: Quality sprinter, though not one we are going to back.

 

5. Clearly Innocent (6)

 

Odds - $15

Carrying - 58.5kg

 

Prize Money: $1.2m

Last 10: 3s3119s046

 

6yo gelding

Jockey: Hugh Bowman

 

Trainer: Kris Lees

 

Big Wins: Group 1 Kingsford-Smith Cup, Country Final Championship

Summary: had a quality run last start, hitting the line strongly. Has strong form when 2nd up from a spell, which is the case for this race. Has a good record on rain affected tracks.

Findabet Verdict: At $15 represents some value.

 

6. Deploy (7)

 

Odds - $12

Carrying - 58.5kg

 

Prize Money: $0.6m

Last 10: 11412s1111

 

5yo gelding

Jockey: Josh Parr

 

Trainer: Gerald Ryan

 

Big Wins: Group 2 Theo Marks Stakes, Group 2 Moreton Cup

Summary: Owns the track record over 1200m at Randwick, after running a 1.08.06 two starts back. That however, was carrying a few less kilograms. Deploy has won its last two starts. Expect him to go forward and if there’s a slow tempo set, he will be tough to catch.

Findabet Verdict: Given a slow race and windy conditions as they come off the bend, Deploy will be right in the finish.

 

7. Fell Swoop (8)

 

Odds - $67

Carrying - 58.5kg

 

Prize Money: $1.6m

Last 10: 86s9366s32

 

6yo gelding

Jockey: Tye Angland

 

Trainer: Matthew Dale

 

Big Wins: Group 2 Victory Stakes

Summary: Fell Swoop feels like the forgotten runner amongst this classy pack. Has some big wins next to his name but hasn’t won anything in over 18-months.

Findabet Verdict: Likely out of his depth here.

 

8. Brave Smash (9)

 

Odds - $41

Carrying - 58.5kg

 

Prize Money: $0.9m

Last 10: 212s443s08

 

4yo

Jockey: JP Spencer

 

Trainer: Darren Weir

 

Big Wins: Listed McLeod Stakes, Listed Royal Cup

Summary: A classy Japanese horse, who has performed well in 3 Australian runs this spring, with a win and two seconds. His first second placing in Aus was by 0.4 lengths against Everest favourite, Vega Magic. His last second placing, however was in a much weaker field, putting some serious doubts over his chances in The Everest.

Findabet Verdict: Could be a surprise packet at very long odds.

 

9. English (12)

 

Odds - $12

Carrying – 56.5kg

 

Prize Money: $2.7m

Last 10: 24s66271s0

 

5yo mare

Jockey: Blake Shinn

 

Trainer: G Waterhouse & A Bott

Big Wins: Group 1 All Aged Stakes, twice won Group 2 Challenge Stakes

Summary: This Gay Waterhouse runner is a very classy mare. Her chances to win will be running from the back, in an up-tempo race. She has finished second to Chautauqua on multiple occasions doing this however. Had a great run last start, with a narrow second placing at Randwick.

Findabet Verdict: A very quality horse at a decent price, but you can’t back them all. This is one we will leave out.

 

10. She Will Reign (2)

 

Odds - $5

Carrying - 51kg

 

Prize Money: $3.4m

Last 10: 1s121s11

 

3yo filly

Jockey: Corey Brown

 

Trainer: Gary Portelli

 

Big Wins: Group 1 Golden Slipper, Group 1 Moir Stakes

Summary: She Will Reign has been fighting with Vega Magic for favouritism. She’s the pick of the three-year olds, having been the dominant 2yo last season, culminating in a Golden Slipper victory. Won the group 1 Moir stakes under Weight-for-Age conditions last start, so has form to boot. The barrier draw suits her perfectly. A win here would make her an absolute superstar of Australian racing.

Findabet Verdict: We are questioning how she will hold up amongst the older stronger horses. She feels like the public sentimental favourite, which means she likely doesn’t represent good value in the betting.

 

11. Houtzen (1)

 

Odds - $31

Carrying - 51kg

 

Prize Money: $1.6m

Last 10: 13s51111

 

3yo filly

Jockey: J Lloyd

 

Trainer: Toby Edmonds

 

Big Wins: Magic Millions, Group 3 Champagne Stakes

Summary: Houtzen was the other stand-out of last years’ 2yo season. She has plenty of speed and will likely take up the lead, setting a fast tempo. This years’ Golden Slipper showed that wet conditions are her weakness, though despite some rain forecast the track should hold up well.

Findabet Verdict: A win not likely.

 

12. Tulip (11)

 

Odds - $67

Carrying - 51kg

 

Prize Money: $0.6m

Last 10: 42s531421

 

3yo filly

Jockey: Tim Clark

 

Trainer: D&B Hayes & T Dabering

 

 

 

Big Wins: Group 3 Magic Night Stakes

Summary: Failed to live up to some of her hype as a 2yo. If one of the 2yo fillies were to win, you’d expect it to be She Will Reign of even Houtzen.

Findabet Verdict: We’ll save our money.