NSW fans and players alike have put up with a lot of pain and heartache over the past decade. Only once in the past eleven years have NSW won a SOO series and not since 2005 have they won a deciding game.
NSW were up 16-6 at half time of Game II and having dominated the previous game, looked on the verge of an emphatic victory. It was a different story in the second half. QLD took opportunity by the horns as an erratic NSW looked keen on sabotaging a potential series win.
Given the history of the past decade and the seemingly dominant form of the 2017 NSW team, this series decider is poised to be either the most painful of crushing defeats for NSW or the victory that finally ends the decade of QLD dominance.
NSW have made no team changes throughout the 2017 series. An injury cloud remains over captain Boyd Cordner’s head, though FindaBet can confirm that he will play. NSW coach Laurie Daley will be looking for a team performance from Jarryd Hayne after a string of reckless errors in the final quarter of Game II. We believe it highly likely that he will look to set up and put on a try for his winger Brett Morris. Pressure is also on NSW half Mitch Pearce who has scored in each game and may well do so again supporting some dominant NSW forwards rampaging through the middle. Though in a tight game, we wouldn’t be counting on him
QLD will be looking to grow another leg. Their forward pack won’t want to be dominated for a second time at home this year. If QLD are to get the win, it will have Cronk, Slater and Smith written all over it. The selectors have made their job somewhat harder though with the shock inclusion of Ben Hunt in the QLD Origin squad. Some are questioning if this is one of the worst QLD selections ever.
We see no reason why NSW’s current forward pack dominance should falter. Accordingly, we like NSW to win, and win emphatically. The total has been set at 31.5 points, which is a little low for Game III of an Origin series. The conditions at Suncorp Stadium won’t be as cold and slippery as would be expected in a Sydney based game, so we’ll be having a punt on the total points going over.
NSW -1.5 @ $1.92 - Ladbrokes
Over 31.5 @ $1.91 - Ladbrokes
Brett Morris @ $2.60 – Sportsbet
We also like the Same Game Multi below, which Sportsbet are refunding (as a bonus bet) if only 1 leg fails.